Minnesota Senate Race: Flanagan vs. Tafoya

Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race, according to a recent poll. The poll indicates a competitive contest, as Flanagan’s lead is within the survey’s margin of error with Election Day looming on November 3.

Democrats aim to reclaim control of Congress’ upper chamber in an election where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Achieving this requires defending their current seats, including those in states won by President Donald Trump in 2024, and flipping four Republican-held seats.

The Minnesota Senate race, rated as likely Democratic by The Cook Political Report, has drawn attention as Democrats and Republicans vie for the seat previously held by Democrat Tina Smith. Smith’s retirement has opened the door for Flanagan and Tafoya, each representing different political wings.

“The race highlights ongoing divisions within the Democratic Party between progressive and moderate factions,” The Cook Political Report states.

Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination by defeating Representative Angie Craig in August, representing the progressive wing backed by figures like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar. Tafoya capitalizes on her name recognition from her career as an NFL sideline reporter.

The state has seen Democrats winning statewide elections consistently, although Republicans aim to gain ground. Vice President Kamala Harris won Minnesota by roughly 4 percentage points in 2024 while President Trump won only narrowly in 2016.

Issues surrounding immigration and fraud investigations have kept Minnesota in the national spotlight. Federal immigration officers’ actions earlier this year sparked protest in Minneapolis over the government’s approach to immigration and border security.

Latest Poll Results

A new Quantus Insights poll shows Flanagan leading 48.2 percent to Tafoya’s 44.4 percent. About 88.6 percent of participants were decided in their vote, while 7.5 percent expressed openness to reconsider their decision.

• Women favor Flanagan by 14 points, with a 54 to 40 percent split.
• Men support Tafoya by 8 points, 50 to 42 percent.
• Flanagan leads among voters under 45.
• Tafoya leads among older voters aged 45 and above.

Flanagan enjoys a 50 percent favorable rating, versus Tafoya’s 42.4 percent. The poll, conducted among 720 likely voters from September 8-10, has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Additional Poll Findings

A TIPP/League of American Workers poll showed Flanagan with a narrow lead, while showing varied demographics in support. Both candidates received 37 percent of the independent vote. Other polls, such as KSTP/SurveyUSA and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, reflect a competitive race.

Democrats’ Senate Hopes

Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and hold current seats to gain Senate control. Concerns over the economy and President Trump’s approval ratings offer potential openings for Democrats.

According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Democrats have leads in several Republican-held seats, but outcomes hinge on minimal error margins. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket vary on forecasts of Senate control after midterms. As of Friday, Kalshi sees a 53 percent chance for Republicans maintaining control, while Polymarket has Democrats slightly favored.

Minnesota’s in-person early voting starts on October 16.