Population Changes in U.S. States: Birth and Death Rates

New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows a trend of more deaths than births in an increasing number of U.S. states. The nation’s fertility rate has declined below the replacement level of around 2.1 children per woman. This trend prompts concerns about future workforce size and the viability of Social Security.

Recent Trends

Between July 2024 and July 2025, 17 states reported more deaths than births. This contrasts sharply with most of the 2010s, when only four states typically noted such a natural decrease. The Census Bureau’s estimates indicate a growing concern about demographic changes.

Why the Decline?

Fertility rates continue to drop nationwide, including in Utah, a state traditionally known for large families. Contributing factors likely include increasing housing costs, the delay of marriage, and changing cultural attitudes. While immigration and domestic migration can mitigate population declines, states with persistent natural decrease face ongoing demographic challenges.

States with More Deaths than Births

According to data from the Census Bureau for July 2024 to July 2025, Pennsylvania experienced the greatest natural decrease, followed by West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan. Most states with more deaths than births are in the Northeast and Appalachia, areas with older populations. However, experts also highlight the financial burden of child-rearing.

“It’s just not feasible for families planning to have more children simply because they may not be able to afford to,”

stated Divya Sangameshwar, an insurance researcher. Increasing costs, along with inflation and employment uncertainty, influence family decisions to delay or forgo having children.

States With Population Growth

Some states continue to see strong natural population growth. Texas reported the largest increase with 157,700 more births than deaths, followed by California, New York, Georgia, and Utah. Economic and social factors such as housing and childcare costs, as well as the postponement of marriage and childbearing, affect fertility rate declines, according to Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the Gardner Institute.

The Role of Migration

Despite surpassing deaths with births, overall population growth can still occur. Florida exemplifies this, experiencing natural decrease but remaining one of the fastest-growing states due to domestic and international migration. This shift suggests that migration may progressively become the separating factor between states with growing populations and those with shrinking populations as birth rates decline.

“With natural change less of a contributor to growth than it used to be, some states – especially those without positive net domestic migration – are dependent on international migration for their population to grow,”

said Marc Perry of the U.S. Census Bureau in a recent report.

Future Implications

Birth and death contributions to population change will lessen as fertility remains low and the population ages. For states with natural population decreases, attracting new residents may become crucial for sustaining economic growth and local businesses.

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