Texas Senate Race: Democrat James Talarico’s Unexpected Lead

Significant Shift in Vote Share

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has experienced a substantial change in vote share in Texas State Senate District 9. An internal poll acquired by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report indicates a 28-point swing compared to President Donald Trump’s numbers in 2024.

This shift points to a possible Republican loss in a Senate race in Texas for the first time since 1988. Talarico, currently a Democratic state lawmaker, competes against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn in May, securing Trump’s endorsement to win his party’s nomination.

Democrats aim to gain ground in both the House and Senate, hoping to limit Trump’s legislative efforts throughout his second term.

Internal Poll Results

On Monday, the Quorum Report disclosed an internal Republican poll showing Talarico leading with 52 percent of the vote in Texas State Senate District 9. Paxton garnered 41 percent, marking an 11-point lead for Talarico.

Trump dominated Democrat Kamala Harris by 17 points in the district during the 2024 presidential election. Thus, the poll reveals a substantial 28-point shift away from GOP support.

Texas State Senate District 9 encompasses areas of Tarrant County, including a significant portion of Fort Worth. The poll’s numbers follow a political upset in January when Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by over 14 points in a special election, marking the district’s first Democratic victory since 1991.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between September 10 and September 15, bearing a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Quorum Report published the poll without detailing the sources or releasing the polling memo, going against usual practices.

General Polling Trends

Recently, Talarico led Paxton in eight separate polls, marking his first lead across all surveyed groups. An Emerson College survey, conducted from September 12 to September 14, showed Talarico ahead by one percentage point, capturing 47 percent against Paxton’s 46 percent.

A Siena College/ReconMR poll released on Thursday, conducted from September 8 to September 11, placed Talarico at 49 percent, with Paxton at 43 percent. Talarico has since become the leading candidate on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi predicts a 59 percent chance of success for Talarico, contrasted with Paxton’s 41 percent, while Polymarket gives Talarico a 62 percent chance versus Paxton’s 39 percent.

Both sides are actively increasing fundraising efforts. Federal Election Commission reports show Paxton receiving an additional $5 million from MAGA Inc., a central pro-Trump political action committee.

Controversial Candidate

Paxton remains a contentious figure within Texas Republican ranks. In 2023, the GOP-majority Texas House impeached Paxton over allegations of power misuse. However, the state Senate later acquitted him.

Trump’s endorsement was crucial for Paxton in overcoming Cornyn during the Republican primary in May. Cornyn had served in the Senate since 2002.