Texas Senate Race: Warning Signs for Ken Paxton

The Texas Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico is becoming increasingly competitive. Recent polls, particularly one conducted by the University of Texas and Texas Politics Project, highlight several challenges Paxton faces as he endeavors to retain his seat.

Democrats Eye a Potential Win

Democrats see the 2026 midterm elections as a chance to flip Texas, a traditionally Republican-leaning state. The state’s support for Trump in 2024 by 14 points now contrasts with recent polls showing Talarico edging out Paxton. With Trump’s national approval declining, Democrats believe this might bolster their party’s chances. There’s discontent regarding the economy and living costs, and Republicans struggle with these criticisms. Additionally, Paxton’s lack of popularity among some constituents presents further difficulties.

Four Warning Signs from Latest Poll

A University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered voters, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points, reveals several issues for Paxton:

• Decline in support from June 2026
• Low voter motivation among GOP supporters
• Unfavorable ratings compared to Talarico
• Trump’s declining approval in Texas

Declining Support for Paxton

The poll indicates Paxton now trails Talarico by 3 points—Paxton at 39% and Talarico at 42%. Libertarian Ted Brown garners 3%, while 1% prefers another candidate. Notably, 14% remain undecided. This positions Talarico slightly ahead, a shift from June’s poll where Paxton held a 1-point lead.

Challenges with GOP Enthusiasm

Republican voter enthusiasm lags, with only 39% stating they’re “extremely” motivated to vote. In contrast, 50% of Democrats express this level of motivation. Enthusiasm is vital for election turnouts, and both candidates aim to energize their bases.

Favorability Ratings Favor Talarico

Talarico has a +10 favorability among voters, whereas Paxton stands at -13. Paxton’s scandals, notably his 2023 impeachment related to bribery allegations, have hurt his image. He denied any wrongdoing even after his acquittal. Recent controversies, such as a plea deal criticism, add to his unfavorable perception.

Trump’s Approval Decline

The poll shows Trump’s disapproval at 51% among Texans, impacting Paxton’s support. Given Paxton’s close ties with Trump, this trend could affect the Attorney General’s chances.

Other Polls and Predictions

Polls, such as Emerson College and Texas Southern University, indicate a tight race. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reflect a close contest, with Talarico and Paxton in near parity.

Democrats’ Strategy in Texas

Democrats aim to capitalize on shifting demographics, particularly in urban centers, to turn Texas from red to purple. Although the 2024 elections saw a Republican resurgence among Hispanic and Latino voters, they believe urban momentum might counter these shifts.

Republican Majority at Risk

Nationally, the Senate map shows challenges for Democrats; they must gain four seats for a majority. While Republican-held seats in states like Maine could be easier targets, Democrats’ strategy also includes trying to turn more conservative states, like Texas, to their side.