Tight Senate Race in South Carolina with Graham and Andrews Deadlocked

Darline Graham, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina, is facing a close contest. A poll from The New York Times/Siena Research Institute shows that Graham and Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews are tied at 48 percent, while 3 percent of voters remain undecided. This poll comes just before President Donald Trump’s scheduled rally in the state, demonstrating his continued influence in South Carolina politics.

Midterm elections are often seen as a reflection of the current political climate for the party in power. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats during these elections. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won South Carolina against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Darline Graham assumed the Senate seat following the death of her brother, former Senator Lindsey Graham, who died from aortic dissection. His unexpected passing due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease occurred in July when he was 71 years old. Darline was sworn into the position soon after, with Trump’s support.

Despite Trump’s backing, his approval ratings on specific issues such as the economy, immigration, jobs, and international conflicts have declined. Many American households express ongoing concerns about affordability, which could impact voter sentiment. Trump has been actively campaigning for Republican candidates, including in South Carolina.

Responses to the political landscape in South Carolina show a gender and demographic divide. Men tend to favor Graham at 55 percent, while women show more support for Andrews at 54 percent. Andrews appears more favored by Independents, with 57 percent backing her compared to 37 percent for Graham.

Graham garners strong support from older white voters and those without a college degree, as well as committed Republican voters. The survey revealed that 89 percent of Trump voters from 2024 support Graham, whereas Andrews garners only 8 percent of these voters. Overall, Graham’s favorability rating is slightly lower at 44 percent compared to Andrews’ 45 percent.

The poll indicates differing opinions on key issues. Andrews is seen as better suited to handle the economy by 51 percent of respondents, while Graham is preferred on immigration issues at 50 percent. When asked who they believe would work in the best interest of ordinary South Carolinians, 49 percent favored Andrews against 46 percent for Graham.

This poll included 707 likely voters from October 19-26, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as leaning Republican, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show Graham in the lead.

Political analysts provide insights into the potential outcomes. D. Stephen Voss from the University of Kentucky notes that polls suggest increasing Democratic support, although Republicans can hope to maintain support in their traditionally favored states like South Carolina. Grant Davis Reeher from Syracuse University expects Republicans to rally late in the race, though a Democratic victory would suggest significant shifts in Senate control.

An additional InsiderAdvantage poll reflects similar neck-and-neck standings, with Graham at 46 percent and Andrews close behind at 45 percent. Other minor party candidates and undecided voters could sway the final outcome, highlighting the race’s competitiveness. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters in late September with a margin of error of 2.83 percent.