Trump’s Approval Rating and Its Potential Impact on Midterm Elections

With less than three months to the November midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains below positive in most states, with the exception being a few traditionally Republican areas that continue to support his job performance.

Nationally, 35% of voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove as of August 19. This results in a net approval rating of -24 according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. The survey, which has collected 124,759 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump began his second term, provides this data.

A breakdown by state reveals Trump is significantly unpopular in all seven battleground states he won in the 2024 presidential election. Control of Congress is at stake in November, and even minor changes in support could greatly influence important midterm races.

In states like Indiana and Mississippi, where Trump previously had positive approval ratings during much of his second term, he now finds himself in negative territory.

The White House has dismissed concerns about the president’s low approval ratings, citing his 2024 election victory as the true measure of public support.

The map below explores Trump’s net approval rating in each state.

Why It Matters

Typically, a president’s party loses seats during midterm elections. This trend, combined with Trump’s unpopularity across much of the country, poses a challenge for Republicans as they aim to hold onto their slim majorities in the House and Senate. Democrats, on the other hand, are striving to gain enough seats to win congressional control, which would enable them to block the president’s agenda during the remainder of his term.

Where Trump Is Most Popular

According to the Civiqs poll, Trump’s highest net approval rating is in Wyoming, where 56% of voters approve of his performance, and 35% disapprove, offering a net approval rating of +22 when rounded up.

Other states where his net approval is positive include:

• North Dakota: +18 (56% approve, 37% disapprove)
• South Dakota: +9 (51% approve, 42% disapprove)
• Alabama: +6 (49% approve, 43% disapprove)
• Idaho: +9 (50% approve, 41% disapprove)
• West Virginia: +13 (52% approve, 39% disapprove)
• Arkansas: +8 (51% approve, 43% disapprove)
• Oklahoma: +7 (50% approve, 43% disapprove)
• Montana: +4 (48% approve, 44% disapprove)

In Indiana, Trump’s net approval rating turned negative in late June, now standing at -3. Similarly, in Mississippi, his rating shifted to negative since May. Trump started his second term with much higher net approval ratings in these Republican heartland states, indicating a significant decline.

Where Trump Is Least Popular

The president’s weakest approval numbers are in Democratic strongholds. In Hawaii, his net approval rating is the lowest, with 18% approving and 78% disapproving, resulting in a net rating of -60.

Other states with low net approval include:

• Vermont: -54 (20% approve, 75% disapprove)
• Maryland: -52 (21% approve, 73% disapprove)
• Massachusetts: -48 (24% approve, 71% disapprove)
• California: -43 (26% approve, 69% disapprove)
• Connecticut: -41 (27% approve, 68% disapprove)
• Washington: -43 (26% approve, 69% disapprove)
• Oregon: -40 (28% approve, 68% disapprove)
• New York: -39 (28% approve, 67% disapprove)

Trump Is Deeply Underwater in Battleground States

In all seven swing states he won in the 2024 presidential election, Trump remains unpopular. Any further decline in these battleground states could harm Republicans in important midterm races.

These states and their approval ratings include:

• Arizona: -13 (41% approve, 53% disapprove)
• Georgia: -23 (35% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Michigan: -22 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Nevada: -21 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• North Carolina: -16 (39% approve, 55% disapprove)
• Pennsylvania: -19 (37% approve, 56% disapprove)
• Wisconsin: -17 (39% approve, 56% disapprove)

In Florida, a former swing state now leaning Republican, Trump’s net approval is -11, with 42% approval and 53% disapproval.

What Trump’s Rating Means for Midterms

Trump’s approval ratings may affect Republican candidates across the nation in the midterm elections, according to Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, who spoke with Newsweek.

Presidential approval ratings serve as a “reliable predictor of midterm outcomes,” Panagopoulos stated.

“Net disapproval in most states may drag down Republican candidates significantly,” he explained. “Many will survive due to factors like the state’s or district’s partisan alignment, but some will lose, potentially enough for Democrats to gain majority control in one or both congressional chambers. There are few areas where Trump’s approval is above water.”

Grant Davis Reeher, another political science professor at Syracuse University, described the situation as “a grim map for the president.” According to Reeher, midterm elections often serve as referendums on the president’s first two years, with voters expressing “buyer’s remorse.” Reeher noted that the Democratic Party’s brand also suffers from poor approval ratings, bringing some uncertainty to these midterms. Still, he expects Democrats to perform and potentially reclaim the House.

What the White House Says

Responding to questions about polling, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that the almost 80 million Americans who voted for Trump gave him a mandate to “implement his popular and sensible agenda.”

“No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working hard to create jobs, ease inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” Ingle emphasized.

“The President has already made significant progress both domestically and internationally, and this is only the beginning as his agenda continues to unfold.”