Winter Weather Forecasts for 2026-2027

As the end of September approaches, thoughts turn to the upcoming winter season. Predictions for the 2026-2027 winter vary, relying on different sources and methods of forecasting.

Competing Almanacs

The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac have both released their extended forecasts. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a season full of “snow, sleet, and surprises” across the U.S., highlighting variations in precipitation. Snowy conditions are anticipated in the upper Plains and Midwest. The Gulf and southern East Coast are forecasted to be “wet,” with “coastal storms” expected in New England.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests a generally mild winter. Only the Ohio Valley and southern New England are expected to see a colder season. The Pacific Coast, parts of the Gulf, and the Midwest might experience wetter conditions.

Accuracy remains questionable. Historical analysis shows only about half of the Farmers’ Almanac forecasts have been accurate, though both publications claim an 80% success rate. Meteorologist Rich Segal notes that long-term forecasts can be unpredictable.

National Weather Service Outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) also provides long-term weather outlooks. These forecasts are more general and cannot predict specific weather events like storms. Jon Gottschalck from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center states detailed predictions far in advance are not feasible.

The Climate Prediction Center’s recent forecasts suggest warmer-than-normal temperatures due to a powerful El Niño. Several southern states could see above-average rainfall from October to December. The pattern is expected to persist into early 2027, with warmer temperatures and wetter conditions for much of the U.S.

Influence of El Niño

El Niño may be the strongest pattern observed since 1950 and is likely to continue into spring 2027. This will impact northern and southern states differently. Northern areas are expected to be drier and warmer, while southern regions may be cooler and wetter.

Despite general trends, localized weather occurrences, such as cold spells and snow in the northern Plains, will still happen. Brian James, Nexstar meteorologist, notes that while the pattern doesn’t favor frequent snow, it remains a possibility.

Trust in Forecasts?

The reliability of almanac predictions is subjective. Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, acknowledges that while their forecasts are refined, nature remains unpredictable.