Tennessee Primary: Ogles vs. Hatcher

Republican Representative Andy Ogles is contending with a tough primary against Charlie Hatcher, a former agriculture commissioner. Hatcher has secured an endorsement from Governor Bill Lee. Tennessee’s congressional districts were redrawn for the midterm elections, aiming to eliminate a Democratic seat in Memphis previously protected by the Voting Rights Act. Ogles’ district now included more areas in the western state and parts of Memphis, losing regions around Nashville and Middle Tennessee.

The race has featured notable endorsements. Lee supports Hatcher, while President Donald Trump backs Ogles. Significant outside investments have also been made, with Ogles receiving criticism over his statements on homosexuality and Muslims.

Tennessee holds its primaries on Thursday, August 6, not on a traditional Tuesday. Efforts to reach both campaigns for comment were made by Newsweek via email.

Prediction Markets Favor Ogles

As the primary day began, prediction markets leaned towards Ogles, giving him an 80% chance of reelection on Kalshi, down from 85% one month prior. On Polymarket, his victory odds stood at 73%. Prediction markets offer a platform for trading contracts linked to political outcomes, adjusting based on polling, fundraising, and political shifts. While providing insights into trader sentiment, they do not guarantee future outcomes.

Polling Reflects Tight Race

A Tusk Strategies poll revealed a close contest, with Ogles at 37% and Hatcher at 33%. The survey included 400 likely Republican voters between July 26-28, featuring a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

The district is not seen as highly competitive. Trump previously won by a wide margin. Experts like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the district as safe for the GOP nominee. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Chaz Molder, Columbia’s mayor, is the frontrunner with endorsements from former Governor Phil Bredesen and Representative Steve Cohen.

Dueling Endorsements from Lee and Trump

Though generally aligned, Lee and Trump support different candidates in this race. Hatcher announced Lee’s endorsement on Facebook, emphasizing their years of friendship. In a video, Lee stated, “I know Charlie. I know his conservative values and how much he loves our country. Charlie has stood with President Trump since day one.”

Trump endorsed Ogles in October 2025. In his endorsement, Trump stated, “Andy is a Conservative Warrior who has strong support from his Community. In Congress, he is fighting tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., and American Energy DOMINANCE, Safeguard our Elections, Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment.”

Trump participated in a “tele-rally” with Ogles in late July, as reported by The Tennessee Lookout. Meanwhile, the super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, backed by renewable energy developers, invested $2 million to support Hatcher.

Ogles reacted, “They are interfering in a Republican primary because they know how hard I FIGHT their radical agenda. We cannot let them BUY a Tennessee seat in Congress. I’m endorsed by President Trump because I’m a fighter and will never back down.”

Controversy Over Ogles’ Remarks

Criticism followed Ogles after a post on X stated, “homosexuality has no place in America.” Ogles later deleted it, attributing the post to a communications team member, and called the post “stupid, hurtful and a complete distraction.”

Texas Senator Ted Cruz highlighted that “for all of recorded history, homosexuals have been part of humanity,” emphasizing that the behavior of consenting adults is their concern. Previously, Ogles remarked that Muslims “don’t belong in American society,” also drawing backlash. Richard Grenell, a special envoy to Trump, urged, “Stop attacking the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.”