California’s Gubernatorial Candidates Face Critical Challenges Ahead of Primary

As California approaches the June 2 gubernatorial primary, a recent UC Berkeley poll reveals a closely divided voter base among three leading candidates. The survey, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, indicates a precarious moment in history for both the state and nation.

According to the poll, 25% of likely California voters support Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet secretary. Republican Steve Hilton, known for his stint as a Fox News commentator and British political strategist, garners 21% backing. Meanwhile, 19% favor Democrat Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmental activist.

The poll shows a clear separation of these candidates from the rest of the field, with Becerra making significant gains from a mere 5% support in March. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco’s Republican support dwindled by 5%, now placing him in a distant fourth. Other Democrats, including former Rep. Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, struggle to gain traction, remaining in single-digit support.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautions that predicting the primary’s outcome remains challenging, especially given low voter turnout. Every registered voter received a mail-in ballot, yet many have not returned them or visited voting locations.

DiCamillo estimates Democrats will turn out in the final week, diminishing Hilton’s current lead. Data shows Democratic voters favor Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points, while non-partisan preferences remain evenly split among Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton.

Hilton leads Republican support, outpacing Bianco nearly two to one, while Becerra holds a notable lead among women and Latino voters. Steyer finds support among Black voters. Hilton appears favored by libertarians and in regions like Orange County and Central Valley.

Despite the lack of a clear front-runner, marked by a record 61 candidates, the race garners attention due to recent developments. Ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew amid misconduct allegations, and Steyer shattered state self-funding records, contributing $212 million to his campaign. Independent expenditures from various corporations and interest groups exceed $85 million.

The race occurs amidst significant statewide challenges. Federal healthcare funding cuts threaten vulnerable residents while California’s budget stability suffers due to dependency on wealthy taxpayers. Factor in record gas prices aggravated by the U.S.-Iran conflict, and affordability issues rise, prompting many to leave the state.

Polling reveals voters prioritize cost of living, homelessness, and public safety, alongside protecting voting rights. Political splits surface in views on climate change, immigration, and taxation, heavily influenced by former President Trump’s policies.

California’s unique primary system allows the top two candidates, regardless of affiliation, to advance to November’s general election. While Democrats largely populate the state’s voter registry, earlier concerns suggested intra-party division could bolster Hilton and Bianco’s advancement.

Trump’s endorsement of Hilton proved pivotal, increasing his Republican support with over a third indicating it influenced their choice. Among ‘Make America Great Again’ adherents, Hilton enjoys nearly two-thirds support.

DiCamillo highlights Hilton’s unconventional campaign success attributed to free media over traditional advertising, as nearly a third of voters remain undecided.

Democrats initially feared exclusion from the general election, prompting their leadership to urge less popular candidates to step aside. However, a scenario of two Democrats advancing appears possible and could substantially affect voter turnout, impacting U.S. House control.

The poll, conducted online in both English and Spanish, surveyed 8,578 registered voters, with a margin of error approximately 2 percentage points.