Close Race in South Carolina Senate as Democrats Eye Potential Gain

Democratic candidate Annie Andrews trails Republican Senator Darline Graham by a mere point in the newest South Carolina Senate race poll. Democrats view the state as a potential gain in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

Historically, South Carolina has leaned heavily conservative. In the 2024 presidential election, it supported President Donald Trump by a significant 18-point margin. However, with Trump’s approval ratings declining nationally, Democrats hope to broaden their reach in the November 3 election. Beyond traditional battlegrounds like Alaska and Iowa, states such as South Carolina, Kansas, and Mississippi are now drawing Democratic interest.

Darline Graham assumed her Senate position following the death of Lindsey Graham, her brother. She secured her nomination with Trump’s endorsement.

Current Polling Data

The latest InsiderAdvantage poll shows Graham at 46% support and Andrews at 45% among 1,200 likely voters, a margin within the poll’s 2.83 percentage point error range. Other candidates hold 5% support with 4% of voters undecided. Polling took place from September 28 to 29, 2026.

Other surveys have also highlighted this competitive race. Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, showed Graham with a slim 43% to 42% lead during their poll from September 23 to 25, again within its 2.9-point error margin. Earlier polls in September reinforce the close nature of the race.

Comparison to Past Elections

In 2024, Trump captured 58% of the South Carolina vote against Kamala Harris. Yet, recent national polls reveal growing Democratic favor. A YouGov and The Economist survey reported Democrats holding a 15-point edge on the generic ballot. Issues like the economy and the cost of living impact Trump’s overall approval, potentially altering political dynamics in conservative areas.

Democratic Prospects

While South Carolina appears competitive, it remains a challenging landscape for Democrats. The state last elected a Democratic president in 1976 and a Democratic senator in 1998. Despite a significant Black voter base and support in cities like Charleston, rural regions and polarization present challenges.

The political environment could provide Democrats chances in traditionally Republican areas. Civiqs’ data show 50% of South Carolina voters disapprove of Trump, while 44% view him positively.

Upcoming Developments

Forecasters such as The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still lean toward a Republican win. Observers will follow polling trends to discern voter shifts.

Voter Information

South Carolina voters must adhere to registration deadlines: In-person by October 2 at 5 p.m, online by October 4 at 11:59 p.m, and mail postmarked by October 5. Early voting runs from October 19 to 31, with absentee ballot applications due by October 23 at 5 p.m.

This article was assisted by Martyn, Newsweek’s AI, to compile information. Connect with editors Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas for further insights.