Democratic Candidates Gain Ground in Key Texas Districts

Recent polling by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs indicates Democratic candidates are leading their Republican opponents in key Texas congressional districts. The districts in question were carried by President Donald Trump in previous elections, with one showing a significant swing.

In Texas’ 15th Congressional District, Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido holds a 50 percent to 45 percent lead over Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz. Trump had previously won this district by 18 points. Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico also shows a strong lead in this district, securing 50 percent against Ken Paxton’s 42 percent. Republican Senator Ted Cruz had carried the district by 9 points previously.

Similar leads are observed in Texas’ 28th and 34th Congressional Districts. In the 28th, Talarico leads Paxton 51 percent to 41 percent in a district that Cruz won by less than a point. In the 34th, Talarico holds a 53 percent to 42 percent lead, following Cruz’s victory by 2 points.

Republican strategist Mike Madrid remarked on the Latino vote, calling it America’s largest swing vote, suggesting a shift in voter sentiment.

Madrid explained that while the Latino vote trended right in 2024, it was not aligned with a permanent realignment. Frustration with the economy was the catalyst for the shift, which persists. He credited Talarico’s focus on working-class issues, rather than ethnic appeals, for the change in voter sentiment.

The 15th District: A Notable Swing

Texas’ 15th Congressional District is noteworthy, with a demographic profile of roughly 81 percent Hispanic, as noted by Census Bureau data referenced by the Texas Tribune. Trump carried it significantly in 2024. De La Cruz maintained her seat by a margin of 14 points after becoming the district’s first Republican representative. Now, Pulido and Talarico show strong leads, indicating a significant swing.

Madrid and others initially saw the shift as a permanent realignment but recognized it as an economic reaction, with frustration growing.

The 28th and 34th Districts: Close Contests

Outside the 15th District, similar patterns emerge. Talarico leads the 28th District by 10 points, a district where Cuellar maintained control despite a Trump victory. The 34th District displays a larger Hispanic makeup and a close electoral split, showing Democratic leads over opponents.

Despite continuing support for Trump at the top of the ticket, these districts elect Democrats further down the ballot, indicating fragile Republican gains. Hispanics voiced economic concerns which Madrid identified as more critical than cultural alignment.

Polling Insights

National surveys provide context to these trends. A UnidosUS poll of 3,000 registered Latino voters in 2026 highlighted cost of living as the primary concern, followed by economic issues. Another poll commissioned by the LIBRE Institute found housing and health care costs escalating, with a substantial percentage finding them unaffordable.

Deportation issues also resonate, highlighting personal, not economic, impacts.

Broader Electoral Implications

Texas Southern University’s poll suggests a changing landscape. Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia adjusted ratings toward Democrats for several races. A University of Texas poll showed closer races, suggesting fluctuating dynamics.

Age divides are pronounced. Emerson College Polling reveals younger voters lean Democratic; older voters support Paxton. Nate Silver cautioned against relying on single polls, referencing Beto O’Rourke’s historic Senate campaign. Silver’s FLIPR model gives Talarico an edge.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Talarico’s advantage appears tenuous, resting within margin errors.