Democratic Hopeful Leads GOP Candidate in Florida Gov Race

Republican Congressman Byron Donalds trails Democratic candidate David Jolly in the Florida gubernatorial race, according to a Change Research poll. This could signal a potential boost for Florida Democrats, who haven’t secured a statewide victory since 2018. The state has increasingly moved towards Republicans in recent elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis, unable to run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits, was re-elected in 2022 by nearly a 20-point margin. Republicans have since maintained their grip on major statewide offices and expanded their voter registration advantage. Despite this, some polls suggest the race to succeed DeSantis might be more competitive than expected.

Former President Donald Trump recently endorsed Donalds, praising his capabilities. Trump stated, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement.” Trump previously won Florida by 13 points over Kamala Harris in 2024, and no Democrat has been elected governor in over twenty years.

The Donalds campaign, responding to the latest poll results, provided Newsweek with an X post from communications director Gates McGavick, humorously dismissing the poll’s validity. Ryan Smith, also affiliated with the campaign, criticized the Change Research poll as biased, indicating confidence in a victory come November.

Poll Findings

The Change Research survey highlights Jolly, a former Republican who became a Democrat, leading Donalds in a hypothetical election scenario. Jolly focuses his campaign on issues like insurance costs, housing, and healthcare. On the other hand, Donalds campaigns on conservative values, advocating for Trump’s policies and tackling illegal immigration.

According to the poll, Jolly holds a 47 percent to 42 percent lead over Donalds, widening to 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The survey involved 1,273 registered voters, 1,015 of whom are likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Additionally, the poll indicates Jolly receives 94 percent backing from Democrats, while Donalds garners 77 percent support among Republicans.

Other Polls’ Insights

Another Change Research survey shows Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 42 percent. Conducted from May 13 to 16 among 2,070 registered voters, including 1,593 likely voters, it carries a 2.3 percent margin of error.

An Emerson College Polling survey from late March portrayed Donalds at 44 percent versus Jolly’s 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided. Conducted among 1,125 likely voters, its margin of error is 2.8 percent.