Seasonal forecasts suggest an approaching El Nino climate pattern, which could emerge as the strongest ever recorded, bringing along more severe weather conditions. Jeff Berardelli, Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa, Florida, indicated the potential for unprecedented weather events.
Understanding El Nino
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that an El Nino event is likely to develop mid-year, affecting global temperature and rainfall. Although models suggest a strong possibility, WMO warns that spring is a challenging time for precise predictions. El Nino involves the periodic warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific, which modifies global weather patterns. Its opposite, La Nina, features cooler ocean waters. Berardelli notes El Nino’s role in heat redistribution on Earth. Presently, subsurface Pacific heat moves eastward and rises, marking El Nino’s early Phase. WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update shows rapid sea-surface temperature increases, with high confidence in El Nino’s onset and potential intensification, as stated by Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s Chief of Climate Prediction.
El Nino usually occurs every two to seven years, lasting around nine to 12 months, according to WMO.
Causes for Concern
A firefighter battles the Canyon Fire on August 7, 2025, in Hasley Canyon, California. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
Climate scientist Daniel Swain from the California Institute for Water Resources notes the predictive models’ accuracy due to the scale and intensity of warm water anomalies central to El Nino’s development. These anomalies match historic records. The strongest ones are termed “super El Ninos.” Swain mentions the possibility of a significant event, although certainty remains elusive. According to Berardelli, a significant heat release from the Pacific can amplify climate effects, leading to stronger heatwaves, intensified droughts, and severe flooding. Conversely, El Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricanes as the Pacific’s heat overshadows the Atlantic, resulting in fewer Caribbean tropical systems.
Global Impacts
People walk along a dry section of the Amazon River in Santa Sofia, Leticia, Colombia, on October 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia, File)
El Nino has worldwide effects, often causing higher temperatures in the United States, with intensified heat waves, as Berardelli anticipates for the upcoming summer. Although exact predictions are tough, he expects more frequent thunderstorms in the Southwest. Wildfire, logging, and drought-driven forest degradation impact around 40% of the Amazon, potentially worsening in 2026 under strong El Nino conditions. Swain forecasts record global temperatures this year or next due to El Nino, compounded by climate change.
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, describes El Nino’s brief impact on global temperatures as a “zero-sum game,” as it typically swings back to La Nina, which cools the planet for a time. However, the ongoing warming trend driven by fossil fuel use remains a pressing concern, Mann emphasized.
The Associated Press News Director, Peter Prengaman, contributed to this report. The AP’s climate and environmental content benefits from private foundation support, though AP remains solely accountable for its content. Details on AP’s partnership standards and funded topics can be found at AP.org.
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