Francesca Hong Leads in Wisconsin’s Democratic Primary Amid Party Concerns

Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, recently gained ground in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race. Her candidacy has fueled discussions within her party due to the state’s competitive nature.

Wisconsin’s primary has become a pivotal moment for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has largely succeeded in solidly Democratic regions like New York City and Philadelphia. However, a Hong victory here would test DSA’s appeal in a battleground state. Wisconsin’s split political support was evident in recent elections, with Donald Trump narrowly winning in 2024.

Some Democrats worry that Hong’s progressive stance could jeopardize support in the general election. As they seek to benefit from President Trump’s declining approval rating, the party contemplates whether a centrist candidate would fare better. The Wisconsin primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026.

Francesca Hong Takes the Lead in New Poll

A State Navigate poll shows Hong leading with 44% support, outpacing Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (15%) and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (14%). Other candidates trailed in single digits. Additionally, 13% of those polled were undecided. The survey included 1,085 likely voters and had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

Anthony Chergosky, a University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor, highlighted the surprise at Hong’s lead, citing her grassroots campaign and anti-establishment appeal. He noted that Democrats have struggled to unite against her candidacy due to a fragmented opposition.

Kathleen Dolan, a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor, questioned the poll’s representativeness, stating it was conducted via text and may draw responses from more partisan individuals. She emphasized its limitations as an opt-in poll.

Crowley’s campaign acknowledged the significant number of undecided voters, stressing the importance of consolidating support to avoid Republican manipulation in the primary.

Insights from Other Polls

Other surveys reflect Hong’s lead but indicate that many voters remain undecided. A Marquette Law School poll showed Hong with 26% support, Barnes with 15%, and Sara Rodriguez, who has exited the race, with 11%. In this poll, 45% were undecided. The sample comprised 430 Democratic voters.

According to Dolan, the Marquette poll offers a more accurate portrayal of Wisconsin Democrats’ sentiments. Its random selection methodology and historical accuracy lend credibility to its findings.

A Public Policy Polling survey, commissioned by Crowley’s campaign, revealed Hong at 35%, Barnes at 15%, and Crowley at 14%. This survey involved 708 likely voters and underscored the race’s competitive nature.

To win the primary, a candidate only needs a plurality, meaning Hong could technically emerge victorious without majority support.

Rising Concerns Over Hong’s Candidacy

The prospect of Hong’s victory has raised alarms among some Democrats, who fear her DSA affiliation might alienate moderate voters. David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist, and activist Shannon Watts noted potential consequences for down-ballot races, stressing the importance of strategic candidate selection.

Joe Wineke, former Democratic Party of Wisconsin chair, expressed doubts about Hong’s broad appeal, labeling her a far-left candidate in a general election context. Chergosky highlighted potential vulnerabilities, including past comments on defunding the police, which Republicans may exploit in the general election.

The Marquette poll found Hong and Republican Tom Tiffany neck-and-neck, both receiving 44% support. This contrasts with Barnes and Rodriguez, who led Tiffany by 5 and 4 points, respectively. The Cook Political Report categorizes the race as a toss-up.

Rodriguez’s Impact and Broader Context

Financial hurdles prompted Rodriguez to exit the race, reshuffling the Democratic field. Her campaign faced financial discrepancies, leading to leadership changes. Following her departure, Crowley re-entered as centrist Democrats sought to consolidate support. Governor Tony Evers endorsed Crowley, aiming for stability.

Wisconsin’s political landscape remains fluid, shaped by shifts in rural and urban constituencies. Democrats rely on strong turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, while Republicans consolidate in rural areas.

Hong’s identification as a democratic socialist and DSA endorsement highlight her commitment to progressive values. Key tenets include advocating for collective ownership and reforming economic systems democratically.