Potential Formation of Tropical Storm in the Atlantic

The chances have increased that an Atlantic Ocean disturbance east of the United States could develop into a tropical storm in the next seven days, according to a recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and ends on November 30, has been quieter than usual. No hurricanes have formed so far this year.

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted a below-average season for the Atlantic, anticipating eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. As of now, five tropical storms have formed, with the latest being Tropical Storm Edouard on August 31.

A significant factor contributing to the slow season is the El Niño phenomenon. This warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle leads to higher sea temperatures and weaker trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Predictions suggest El Niño will continue strengthening through the year, with a strong likelihood of becoming “very strong” in the fall and winter.

El Niño’s effects in the U.S. are most prominent during the colder months. However, it impacts both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. In the Atlantic, El Niño can reduce hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, potentially disrupting storm systems. In contrast, El Niño augments Pacific storm activity due to warmer waters and less wind shear.

Despite its influence on the quiet Atlantic season so far, El Niño’s pattern may be waning, as NHC meteorologists track a disturbance near Bermuda with the potential to become a tropical storm within the next week. The next Atlantic storm will be named Fay.

The NHC’s latest forecast gives the current disturbance a 40% chance of developing into a tropical storm within seven days. As of Monday afternoon, it was located 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, showing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The forecast map showed its progression westward toward the U.S. East Coast.

“Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week,” noted the NHC. “A tropical depression could form later this week as the system moves slowly west-northwest over the subtropical Atlantic.”

AccuWeather meteorologists also speculate a medium chance of development. A report suggested a storm might form between September 17 and 21. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno stated, “This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere. Sometimes these storms spin down to the surface and can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm if conditions allow.”

Wind shear is widespread across the Atlantic basin but less pronounced near Bermuda, where the disturbance is located. This reduction in wind shear may allow for storm formation.

Comparing the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season to 2025

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was also below average, with 13 named storms, including one hurricane and four major hurricanes. By this time last year, six named storms had formed, including the major hurricane Erin.

An average Atlantic season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Storms Formed This Year

• Tropical Storm Arthur: June 17
• Tropical Storm Bertha: July 19
• Tropical Storm Cristobal: August 12
• Tropical Storm Dolly: August 27
• Tropical Storm Edouard: August 31

Three of these storms emerged in the Gulf of America, bringing rain and winds to the Gulf states.

What to Expect Next

As of Monday afternoon, no tropical storm watches or warnings are in effect. The NHC remains vigilant, providing updates as the disturbance evolves. While forecasts predict a below-average hurricane season, experts caution that a single storm can cause significant damage. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should stay informed and prepared to act if a storm develops.