South Carolina Republican Senate Primary: Graham and Norman Leading in Polls

Current Leaders in South Carolina’s Senate Primary

Interim Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman are the leading candidates in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary, as indicated by a survey conducted on July 21. Graham received backing from 20.8% of likely Republican primary voters, while Norman followed with 16.9%. The survey suggests that, given no candidate has secured a majority, the August 11 primary is likely to lead to an August 25 runoff.

This poll provides insight into the race following President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Graham on July 17, which influenced her decision to pursue a full Senate term.

After Lindsey Graham’s Passing

The special election came after the death of longtime GOP Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to complete the term, setting off rapid campaigning for South Carolina’s open Senate seat, a rare occurrence.

Initially seen as a temporary appointee, Graham’s position shifted dynamics after Trump’s endorsement, making her a candidate to continue her brother’s political work.

While leading the poll, Graham’s standing remains uncertain. Approximately 17.8% of likely voters are unaware of her, and 31.3% are undecided about her candidacy. Resonance Media Services conducted the poll with 600 likely Republican primary voters, carrying an error margin of ±4 points. Graham’s lead of 3.9 points sits within this margin, suggesting no clear leader has yet emerged.

Norman’s Potential Runoff Strategy

Norman, despite trailing, holds a strategic position for a potential runoff. He has favorable numbers and performs well as a secondary choice among voters. A known Trump supporter who finished third in the recent gubernatorial primary, Norman continues his campaign despite Trump’s backing of Graham.

The remaining candidates show divided support. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette stands at 9.6%, Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch each have 7.2%, former Governor Mark Sanford is at 7.1%, Representative Nancy Mace has 2.8%, and Walterboro attorney Duke Buckner is at 0.9%. Notably, Sanford announced his Senate bid post-poll and Mace has since exited the race.

Party Endorsements

The race has attracted national attention and endorsements. Graham received support from Senator Tom Cotton, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune praised her candidacy. Meanwhile, Norman has alliances with prominent conservatives like Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, reflecting a split in party leadership support.

General Election Implications

As Republicans battle in the primary, Democrat Annie Andrews focuses on the November election, having secured her nomination on June 9. Andrews suggests that the divided GOP primary might benefit Democrats.

Political scientist Justin Vaughn from Coastal Carolina University maintains that despite the competition, South Carolina is a strong Republican state. With Trump winning the state by 18 points in 2024 and no Democrat winning a Senate seat since 1998, the GOP seat is likely secure.

The approaching August 11 primary is under national scrutiny, marked by a volatile voter base and compressed campaign period.