Talarico Holds Lead Over Paxton in Tight Texas Senate Race

Democrat James Talarico has a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the close race for the U.S. Senate in Texas. A survey conducted by SoCal Strategies indicates Talarico with 50 percent of the vote against Paxton’s 45 percent. This is a change from June, where Paxton led by 49 to 47 percent.

Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold in federal elections, is witnessing a shift due to changing demographics and political dynamics. Newsweek reached out to both Talarico and Paxton for comments outside regular hours.

Talarico Leads Among Key Demographics

The survey, conducted from September 12 to 13 with 649 likely voters, shows Talarico leading across several voter groups. His support among Hispanic voters increased significantly from 10 percent in June to 38 percent. His backing among independents also rose from 10 percent to 45 percent. Moreover, support from self-identified Republicans increased to 12 percent, and his support among voters aged 18 to 29 reached 46 percent.

Attorney General Paxton, meanwhile, has strong support among white voters, securing 56 percent compared to Talarico’s 39 percent. He also leads among voters aged 45 to 64 and those over 65, with 49 percent and 51 percent support, respectively, compared to Talarico’s support of 46 percent and 44 percent in these groups.

Tightening Race as Election Day Approaches

The poll hints at a potentially closer race as the election nears. Republican voters seem more undecided than Democrats. According to the survey, six percent of Trump supporters in 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, compared to only one percent of those who supported Vice President Kamala Harris.

“To have a chance, Paxton will need to secure nearly all of these undecided voters and take back a significant portion of the 12 percent of Republicans who currently support Talarico,” the survey reported.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, praising him as “the greatest attorney general in America,” and criticized Talarico on social media.

Polling Data in the Texas Senate Race

Texas has voted for Republican presidential candidates consistently since 1980. Democrats hope for a change in 2026, given recent demographic changes. In the 2024 election, Trump led Texas by 13.7 points against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Despite targeting Texas for its changing electorate, Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994. Recent campaigns, like Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 run against Ted Cruz, have fallen short.

Different polls show varying leads for Paxton and Talarico. The competition follows Paxton’s victory over Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. A YouGov/Univision poll conducted in late August shows Talarico leading Paxton by five points, within the margin of error. An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll indicates the race is almost even, with Talarico at 44 percent and Paxton at 43.4 percent, with 12.6 percent undecided.

Polls by Emerson College and Fox News also reflect a close race. Emerson College found Paxton with 47 percent support to Talarico’s 46 percent, while Fox News reported Talarico with 51 percent to Paxton’s 48 percent.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket show narrow differences between the candidates, with Talarico slightly ahead. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball label the race a “toss-up.”