Texas Senate Race Tightens with Shifting Youth Support

Voter Preferences Show Dramatic Shift

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s efforts to draw young voters have faltered as recent polling indicates significant support for Democrat James Talarico among the younger demographic. According to the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Talarico now leads Paxton 76 percent to 18 percent among voters under 35. This marks a notable increase from late July, when Talarico led this group 59 percent to 29 percent. The data reveals that Talarico has gained 17 points among young voters in seven weeks, while Paxton fell 11 points. This shift nearly doubles Paxton’s deficit with young voters from 30 points to 58 points.

Overall Race Still Close

The race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, to replace Republican Senator John Cornyn, remains competitive. The overall poll puts Talarico at 47 percent, Paxton at 46 percent, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent, and 4 percent of respondents remain undecided. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.31 percentage points.

Implications for Democratic Strategy

A Talarico win would mark the first Democratic statewide victory in Texas in over thirty years. The shift is not restricted to the Senate race. Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott among voters under 35, increasing from a July lead of 54 percent to 35 percent, to 71 percent to 21 percent. Vikki Goodwin leads Dan Patrick 65 percent to 18 percent among the same group.

Voter Demographics and Campaign Efforts

Younger voter participation has declined, making up 14 percent of the September sample compared to 18 percent in July. Paxton’s campaign created student groups to support volunteer efforts, but Talarico’s engagement through popular online platforms has been more effective.

Political Analyst Mike Madrid emphasizes Talarico’s success with centrist positioning, which appeals to moderate Republicans. This strategic shift is apparent as 27 percent of moderate Republicans expressed support for Talarico.

Polling Trends and Spending

The Barbara Jordan Center confirms a steady polling pattern, showing Talarico consistently ahead. Other polls report varying leads, but the race remains tight. Republican groups have reserved $47.2 million for advertising, compared to Democrats’ $6.4 million as of mid-September. Talarico’s campaign holds $21.5 million in cash versus Paxton’s $1.8 million.

Looking Ahead

While Texas remains a challenging ground for Democrats, Talarico’s tailored engagement strategy and financial resources present favorable conditions. Texans are set to vote on November 3.