Trump’s Influence Across Latin America’s Political Landscape

Following his victory in Colombia’s presidential first round on May 31, Abelardo de la Espriella did not address his country first but instead directed remarks toward U.S. President Donald Trump. De la Espriella, a criminal defense lawyer with no previous elected experience and a firm stance on anti-crime, running under the slogan “Defenders of the Motherland,” expressed gratitude for Trump’s endorsement, which was issued on Truth Social. Trump praised de la Espriella as an “intelligent, strong and tough leader,” contrasting him with his opponent Ivan Cepeda, labeling Cepeda as a “radical leftist Marxist.”

Trump’s endorsement signals more than diplomatic pleasantries. It illustrates significant political shifts across the Americas, accelerated by Trump’s actions, with Colombia and Peru nearing crucial runoff elections. Latin America has seen several right-wing governments assume power over the last two years, modifying the political landscape favoring Washington to an extent unseen in many years. This trend could diminish left-wing governments, leaving Brazil, Mexico, and authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Venezuela as some of the few remaining strongholds.

Michael Shifter, a notable figure in the Inter-American Dialogue, indicated that political sentiments are moving to the right across Latin America. Trump’s administration has gained unexpected alliances due to closer alignments with his strategies.

The Surge Toward the Right

For years, the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro represented Washington’s staunch opponent, with ties to Russia and China while ridiculing U.S. sanctions. Trump’s initial attempt to remove him failed, prompting a change in approach alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In November, a National Security Strategy presented by the Trump administration promised heightened intervention in the Americas. The subsequent months saw heightened military actions: deploying warships and fighter jets to the Caribbean, and several strikes on suspected drug boats.

In early January, U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro and his spouse, transferring them to a U.S. warship before proceeding to New York to confront narcoterrorism charges. Trump referenced the Monroe Doctrine, expanding it under what he termed the “Don-roe Doctrine,” asserting U.S. authority over Venezuela amid plans for an orderly government transition.

Numerous right-wing allies strengthening their ties with the U.S. have emerged throughout the region. Argentine President Javier Milei became another key figure backed by Washington, using his economic background to maintain crucial political support. Honduran construction magnate Nasry “Tito” Asfura, received Trump’s endorsement, winning political office. El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele became a partner in Trump’s deportation agenda after successfully dismantling gang structures within the country.

José Antonio Kast, a Chilean right-wing candidate, resonating with Trump’s rhetoric and showing admiration for past authoritarian regimes, earned substantial victory against a Communist opponent. Kast’s policies are shaped by Trump’s influence, paralleling former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet’s methods.

A New Latin American Order

In March, Trump gathered numerous Latin American leaders for the “Shield of the Americas” summit held in Florida. This coalition focused on security measures against cartels, migration issues, and strengthening U.S. regional dominance. Key figures like Milei, Bukele, and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa participated. Brazil’s Lula da Silva, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro were notably absent.

Research from Konrad Adenauer Stiftung identified that among 15 Latin American democracies, shifts in direction for nine countries since 2022 including six moving from left to right were noted. Latinobarómetro data show a growing segment identifying as center-right or right, unprecedented in two decades.

Shifter attributed this political shift partially to dissatisfaction with economic delivery from left-leaning governments, criminal issues gaining importance, and an ideological drive seen in Milei and Bukele’s successes having Trump’s endorsement.

Ernesto Samper, former Colombian President, perceived parallels between the contemporary scenario and Operation Condor, reflecting a U.S.-backed violent historical past. His concerns hint at Trump’s tactics possibly inciting nationalist backlash.

Peru: The Next Political Battleground

In Peru, the upcoming presidential runoff sees conservative Keiko Fujimori against leftist Roberto Sánchez. Crime remains a critical concern, with rising rates of homicides and extortion, creating public safety anxieties.

Fujimori promotes strict border controls and deploying forces to high-risk zones, while Sánchez prioritizes investor relations and Chinese mining contracts, conflicting with Washington’s agenda on restricting Beijing’s influence. Election results could influence regional dynamics, aligning or resisting Trump’s strategy.

Colombia: Election Influences

If Peru represents an imminent shift, Colombia stands as a significant U.S. focus. De la Espriella’s success reveals anti-establishment sentiments, running a campaign primarily through social media aligned with Trump’s political environment.

U.S.-Colombia relations have faced strain under Petro, a leftist leader, seeing revoked aid and frequent policy clashes with Washington. Analyst Benjamin Gedan suggested a conservative victory would mend diplomatic tensions yet opposing results might extend conflicts.

As right-wing gains unfold, Trump’s influence predominantly drives changes yet the left remains present. Lula and Sheinbaum challenge Washington’s dominance, alongside authoritarian states like Cuba and Nicaragua.

Shifter cautioned the right’s potential longevity depends on economic and security effectiveness, failing which could revive left-wing efforts. Gedan echoed similar concerns on economic limitations facing incoming conservative governments.