2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released by NOAA

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is set to begin on June 1. As coastal residents prepare for potential storms, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has unveiled its forecast for the upcoming months.

NOAA predicts a below-average season this year, expecting eight to 14 named storms. Out of these, three to six may develop into hurricanes, with one to three potentially reaching Category 3 strength or higher. Despite this prediction, officials emphasize that those in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant and prepared.

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs cautioned that a below-average forecast does not mean a lack of severe hurricanes. “Even one powerful storm can cause significant impact,” Jacobs said, referencing past Category 5 storms occurring during below-average seasons.

Alongside Jacobs, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham highlighted technological improvements that enhance storm readiness. “We are better equipped for hurricane season than ever before,” Graham stated. NOAA oversees the Weather Service, responsible for hurricane forecasts.

Current estimates indicate a 55% chance of below-normal activity, 35% chance of near-normal activity, and 10% chance of above-normal activity during the hurricane season. A storm earns a name when its wind speeds reach a minimum of 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane if wind speeds hit 74 mph and a major hurricane if winds exceed 111 mph, classified as Category 3 or higher according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The Atlantic hurricane season extends through November 30, generally peaking between August and October when the majority and most intense storms occur. NOAA will update its outlook periodically to reflect any forecast changes throughout the summer.

Review of NOAA’s 2025 Hurricane Forecast

NOAA’s hurricane forecasts are usually quite accurate, albeit not exact. In 2025, NOAA anticipated 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. This forecast was revised to predict 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes in August. Ultimately, the season recorded 13 named storms, with five hurricanes, out of which four were major, rendering it quieter than average.

Impact of El Niño on 2026 Hurricane Season

The 2026 hurricane season might be influenced by the onset of El Niño, a climate pattern impacting weather in the U.S. Historically, El Niño correlates with a decrease in Atlantic storms. Meteorologist Nikki Nolan notes El Niño’s emergence “does not necessarily rule out Atlantic hurricane systems but may statistically reduce their frequency.” Conversely, El Niño’s warmer Pacific waters foster tropical storm development.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center asserts an 82% likelihood of El Niño arriving by July. Scientists are scrutinizing conditions to gauge its potential strength.

NOAA’s forecast follows a similar prediction from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software Team, which anticipates reduced activity with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Like NOAA, they will continue providing updates over the coming months.

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Names

The World Meteorological Organization annually curates a list of names for the tropical storms and hurricanes expected in the Atlantic season. The 2026 list comprises 21 names, each starting with a different letter: