Colombian Election Highlights Rising Right-Wing Influence

Four years after Gustavo Petro’s historic election as Colombia’s first left-wing president, the nation is once again preparing to vote. This time, the decision is between continuing Petro’s policies or opting for a new direction with a hard-right candidate. The main contenders in this election are Ivan Cepeda, Petro’s preferred successor, and Abelardo De La Espriella, a lawyer who has emerged as the leading right-wing candidate.

De La Espriella has gained popularity with tactics seen across the Americas. His campaign involves anti-establishment rhetoric, active social media use, and promises to enhance security by defeating the left. His approach mirrors U.S. President Donald Trump and other right-wing leaders like Jair Bolsonaro and Nayib Bukele.

Deep Divisions as Colombia Votes

This election season in Colombia reveals a country polarized. Petro’s time in office ends with approval ratings showing a nation split between his supporters and critics. According to Gimena Sanchez from the Washington Office on Latin America, many Colombians feel disillusioned with the traditional political divide and seek new options.

De La Espriella has capitalized on this sentiment, focusing less on policy and more on opposing Petro’s movement. His proposals include reducing government size, expanding the prison system, and adopting a stronger security stance similar to Bukele’s in El Salvador.

Colombia’s Right-Wing Populism Rise

Despite his outsider status, De La Espriella’s lack of political experience has itself become an asset. His popularity soared from 1.1% in March 2025 to about 30% by the campaign’s final week, challenging Cepeda, who led with approximately 37%.

Polls suggest a potential runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella. Although some polls favor Cepeda, the race remains highly unpredictable. Experts believe the political momentum that lifted De La Espriella is unlikely to fade soon. The political dynamics that began under Petro are expected to continue, now possibly under a right-wing banner.

The Outsider’s Strategy

De La Espriella’s strategy aligns with figures like Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele. He styles himself as an anti-establishment insurgent, referring to himself as “The Tiger” and campaigning against “communism,” broadly aimed at Petro’s policies.

Nonetheless, De La Espriella’s legal career has sparked controversies. He represented high-profile clients, including some with criminal backgrounds. Notably, he represented Alex Saab, linked with money laundering for Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Despite facing criticism, De La Espriella defends his role as an advocate providing legal support, not endorsing client actions.

U.S.-Colombia Relations Under Strain

Colombia’s once robust partnership with the U.S. has dwindled, especially following Petro’s presidency, during which coca cultivation and potential cocaine production surged to record levels. The U.S. responded by stripping Colombia of its drug certification in 2025, citing Petro’s handling of the drug boom.

Both De La Espriella and Paloma Valencia, another conservative candidate, advocate for restoring ties with the U.S. through a revised security strategy focusing on organized crime.

“A conservative victory would quickly repair this strategic relationship,” stated Benjamin Gedan from the Latin America Program at The Stimson Center.

Yet Sanchez warns that a hard-right security strategy may result in human rights violations. Past experiences with military crackdowns have worsened violence without addressing the underlying socio-economic challenges driving illegal economies.

The Venezuelan Challenge

Colombia’s relationship with Venezuela presents a critical foreign policy issue, with a shared border marred by armed groups and drug trafficking. Any new government must navigate this complex relationship, often dictated by U.S. policy toward Venezuela.

Borda suggests that Colombia might need to reduce its reliance on the U.S. in the future, even if current candidates align ideologically with Washington.