Key Races and Issues in the 2026 Midterms

The 2026 midterms have significant implications beyond the control of Congress. They highlight the political influence of Silicon Valley and the reaction against AI developments. CEO Elon Musk’s large donations are aimed at influencing a Texas Senate race and preserving the GOP majority. Key ballot questions, especially the California wealth tax debate, are also crucial.

Ohio Senate Race

Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a tough challenge from Democrat Sherrod Brown, along with candidates Bill Redpath (Libertarian) and Greg Levy (Independent). Husted must defend his position against Brown’s criticism over his past support for data center projects. Husted now opposes tax incentives for such developments. The Senate Republicans’ campaign arm cautioned AI labs about the potential impact of blaming data centers for Husted’s potential loss.

Polls close: 7:30 p.m. EST

Outlook: Rated as a ‘Toss-Up’ by Cook Political Report. Trump won Ohio by 11 points, while Brown narrowly lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno by less than 4 points.

Texas Senate Race

Candidates include Republican Ken Paxton, Democrat James Talarico, and Libertarian Ted Brown. Paxton, with Trump’s backing, seeks to maintain Republican control after defeating Sen. John Cornyn in a primary. Musk has been vocal against Talarico and has contributed at least $158 million to support a pro-Paxton super PAC.

Polls close: 8 p.m. EST in most of Texas; 9 p.m. EST in Mountain Time Zone locations.

Outlook: Also rated as a ‘Toss-Up.’ Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024, with Sen. Ted Cruz securing reelection with a nearly 9-point lead. No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994.

Michigan Senate Race

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, Republican Mike Rogers, Douglas P. Marsh (Green Party), and Lydia Christensen (Libertarian) are in contention. The race is marked by policy differences, with El-Sayed advocating government equity in AI firms and divestment by tech giants, while Rogers calls for a halt to data center proliferation.

Polls close: 8 p.m. EST in most areas; 9 p.m. EST in Central Time Zone counties.

Outlook: Rated as ‘Lean Democrat.’ Trump won Michigan narrowly, and Sen. Elissa Slotkin defeated Rogers by around 202,000 votes in the same year. The state last elected a Republican senator in 1994.

Key House Races

In Michigan’s 7th District, incumbent Republican Tom Barrett faces William Lawrence, a Democrat linked to the Sunrise Movement. They differ on data center policy.

Outlook: A ‘Toss-Up.’ Trump narrowly won this district.

In Ohio’s 9th District, Democrat Marcy Kaptur contends with Republican Derek Merrin. Kaptur criticizes Merrin for supporting tax breaks for data centers.

Outlook: Rated as ‘Lean Democrat.’ Trump won this district by 11 points.

Pennsylvania’s 1st District sees Republican Brian Fitzpatrick against Democrat Bob Harvie, who opposes a major data center and Fitzpatrick’s prior support of it.

Polls close: 8 p.m. EST

Outlook: A ‘Toss-Up.’ Despite Trump losing the district, Fitzpatrick won his seat comfortably.

In Wisconsin’s 3rd District, Republican Derrick Van Orden faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who demands a moratorium on data centers. Van Orden accuses Cooke of excessive closeness with tech entities.

Polls close: 9 p.m. EST

Outlook: Rated ‘Lean Democrat.’ Trump won this district by over 7 points previously.

California Wealth Tax Proposal

On the ballot, California’s proposed 5% tax targets those with wealth exceeding $1 billion. Two other proposals could counteract this. The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers proposed the tax, supported by Rep. Ro Khanna and Sen. Bernie Sanders, while opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Silicon Valley figures like Sergey Brin.

Polls close: 11 p.m. EST

The polling data varies, with a UC Berkeley survey showing 50% opposition compared to 42% support among likely voters. California’s vote-counting process is lengthy, with results potentially taking extended time.