Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Talarico Versus Paxton

The Latest Polls Show a Tight Race

In a recent Trafalgar poll, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race by over three points. Out of 1,086 likely voters surveyed between October 6 to 8, Talarico holds 47.1% of the support, while Paxton stands at 43.6%. Libertarian Ted Brown garners 1.8%, leaving 7.6% of voters undecided. The margin of error for the poll is ±2.9 percentage points.

Texas has a Republican-leaning history, but current polls indicate the race is tightening ahead of November’s midterm elections. Democrats hope poor favorability ratings for Paxton and a national environment marked by President Trump’s declining approval ratings will benefit Talarico.

Strategic Moves by Both Parties

Republicans are banking on Texas partisanship to help Paxton’s campaign while investing more heavily in the race. Trump has rallied support in Texas for the Republican candidacy. Democrats aim to capture crucial seats in conservative states like Texas, needing a flip of four GOP-held seats to gain a Senate majority. Vice President JD Vance would act as a tie-breaker in a 50-50 chamber.

To shift the balance, Democrats must win races like Talarico’s in Texas, where recent polls indicate competitiveness despite the state’s conservative reputation.

Talarico Returns to Public Eye

James Talarico was away from the campaign trail due to the flu, causing speculation and trolling from Republicans, including Paxton. Talarico hit back by appearing at Austin City Limits Music Festival and assured his followers of a full recovery. Paxton leveraged Talarico’s absence, with Trump mocking his condition at a San Antonio rally.

Talarico was diagnosed with the flu on September 30 and disclosed his symptoms to avoid further spreading of the illness. The Democrat made a virtual appearance at a U.S. Hispanic Business Council meeting, indicating his readiness to return to campaigning.

Poll Insights and Market Predictions

Earlier polls showed Talarico leading by 6 points in a Siena University survey from September 21 to 30, and also in a YouGov poll during late September to early October. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give Talarico a slight edge with over 60% chance of winning.

These markets reflect trader sentiment influenced by various factors like fundraising and political trends but are not always precise future predictors.

Democratic Hopes for Texas

Winning Texas would signify a major milestone for Democrats, who have long aimed to shift the state to purple. Historically, GOP margins have narrowed significantly, with Republican victories shrinking from 21 points in 2000 to about 6 in 2020.

Although 2024 proved detrimental for Democrats in Texas as Republicans gained favor among Hispanic and Latino voters, the Democratic dream of “Blexas” persists, driven by expanding blue-supporting suburbs.

Republican Concerns and Spending

Republican concerns grow ahead of the Texas Senate race amid Paxton facing scandals including a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House for alleged misconduct. Though acquitted in the Senate, Paxton refers to his impeachment as politically motivated.

The race has become highly expensive, with over $440 million spent collectively. Paxton raised $18 million in the third quarter. Democrats have raised significant amounts, with Talarico accumulating $72 million since 2025.

Upcoming Election Events

Texas remains a vital contest in the upcoming midterms, considered a toss-up by forecasters. Both candidates will campaign rigorously before early voting starts on October 19. No debate has been scheduled between Paxton and Talarico.