Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs. Paxton Polling Insights

Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico appears to have stronger support among the 2024 Donald Trump voters compared to his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, among 2024 Kamala Harris voters. This insight comes from a recent Big Data Poll. The Democratic party aims to overturn the Senate and the House in the upcoming November midterms, an accomplishment that would hinder President Trump’s legislative efforts during the concluding two years of his second term. A victory in Texas, typically a Republican bastion, would be significant for Democrats who last secured a Senate win there in 1988. Newsweek sought comments from the Talarico and Paxton campaigns via email on Monday.

Polling Data

Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely Texas voters between September 24 and 26. In the survey, Talarico, currently serving as a Texas State Representative, leads Paxton with 44.6 percent to 41.6 percent, after excluding voters only “leaning” toward candidates. Notably, Talarico garnered support from 15 percent of those identifying as Trump voters at the 2024 presidential election, whereas Paxton had backing from 4.3 percent identifying as Harris voters. Among 2024 Harris voters, 89.3 percent expressed their intention to support Talarico, compared to 72.2 percent of Trump voters for Paxton. The poll carries a margin of error of four percentage points. In the 2024 election, Trump secured Texas by 13.7 percentage points, receiving 56.2 percent against Harris’s 42.5 percent.

Additional Surveys

Corroborating the Big Data Poll, a SoCal Strategies survey conducted between September 12 and 13 of 649 likely Texas voters reflected similar trends. Talarico maintained support from 95 percent of Harris voters from 2024 and also attracted 14 percent of Trump voters from that year. Conversely, Paxton held backing from 84 percent of Trump voters, alongside a minimal four percent from Harris voters. The performance disparity was noticeable with Paxton registering poorer results with Harris voters compared to Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott, challenged by Democrat Gina Hinojosa, had the backing of 89 percent of Trump voters and 13 percent of Harris voters; Hinojosa garnered 87 percent from Harris voters and nine percent from Trump voters. Overall, SoCal Strategies marked Talarico’s lead at five points with 50 percent support compared to Paxton’s 45 percent, whereas Abbott led Hinojosa 52 percent to 44 percent.

Other Polling Insights

Further polling outcomes released by Texas Public Opinion Research depicted a five-point lead with Talarico securing 49 percent against Paxton’s 44 percent. Conducted from September 19 to 22 among 1,007 likely voters, the survey held a margin of error of 3.6 percent. An earlier Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters exhibited Talarico edging out Paxton by two points, with 47 percent against Paxton’s 45 percent, between July 27 and 30.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi reveal an improvement in Talarico’s odds for the November election over recent months. Polymarket currently gives Talarico a 61 percent chance of victory versus Paxton’s 40 percent. By contrast, on July 28, Paxton was ahead with 56 percent over 44 percent. Similarly, Kalshi suggests a 59 percent likelihood for Talarico compared to 41 percent for Paxton, reversing July 28 figures where Paxton led with 57 percent against Talarico’s 43 percent.

Candidate Controversies

Endorsed by Donald Trump, Ken Paxton, despite being controversial within Texas Republican circles, polls significantly below Governor Abbott. Paxton overcame Republican Senator John Cornyn, who criticized him as a ‘known con man and fraud’ during a heated May primary runoff, and Cornyn opposed campaigning for Paxton. In 2023, Paxton faced impeachment by Texas House Republicans over allegations of public trust abuse and unfitness to serve, though he was acquitted by the state Senate. Equally, Talarico faces controversies over his remarks concerning Christianity. In a 2021 Texas House address, he stated ‘God is nonbinary,’ suggesting God embodies masculine, feminine, and in-between. He expressed on the Active Theology podcast in 2021, ‘I think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity,’ admiring the revolutionary nature of Jesus’s teachings. Paxton’s campaign shared a video with an AI-generated Talarico claiming himself a ‘Christian who hates Christianity,’ excluding follow-up comments.

Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate during the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. Despite senior campaign advisor Nick Maddux’s assurance in July of debating Talarico, no debate is yet scheduled.