Wisconsin Governor Race Update: Crowley vs. Tiffany

Democrat David Crowley is leading Republican Tom Tiffany in the initial poll for the Wisconsin governor race since both candidates secured their primary victories earlier in August. The gubernatorial contest in Wisconsin is expected to be one of the most competitive during the 2026 midterm elections. Incumbent Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, is set to retire, leaving a vacant seat in this closely contested swing state.

Tiffany, a congressman with support from President Donald Trump, easily won the Republican nomination. Crowley, the executive of Milwaukee County, narrowly defeated democratic socialist state Representative Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary.

David Crowley Leads in New Wisconsin Poll

A poll from Platform Communications, as reported by Wisconsin Public Radio, shows Crowley ahead by 4 points over Tiffany, capturing 48 percent compared to Tiffany’s 44 percent. Wisconsin voters have a more favorable view of Crowley, with a net favorability rating of +17. Specifically, 43 percent have a positive view of him, while 26 percent have a negative view. On the other hand, Tiffany’s favorability is at -5 points, with 38 percent viewing him favorably and 43 percent unfavorably.

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from August 12-13, 2026. According to Henrik Schatzinger, a political science professor at Ripon College, while Crowley has a lead, it is not substantial. He noted that although Wisconsin remains divided, Democrats have experienced recent success in statewide races. Crowley is starting the general election on solid ground.

Schatzinger mentioned that Democrats managed the primary aftermath well. He emphasized the importance of turning party unity into voter turnout. Hong’s support for Crowley has helped rebuild progressive connections, but the challenge remains to mobilize her base in November.

Tiffany, addressing the poll, emphasized his focus on reducing taxes and maintaining fiscal responsibility in Wisconsin. He criticized Crowley for tax hikes and financial mismanagement as Milwaukee County executive.

Crowley countered by stating that Wisconsin voters find Tiffany’s agenda too extreme. He highlighted his commitment to engaging families across the state, discussing plans to lower costs and improve public education.

Additional Polls and Prediction Markets

The Platform Communications poll is consistent with other surveys showing Crowley with a slight lead. A GBAO poll conducted with 800 likely voters between July 30 and August 3 reflected similar results, with Crowley leading by 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent), within a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Another poll from RMG Research and the Napolitan News Service also showed Crowley leading by 3 points.

Prediction markets also favor Crowley, giving him a 75 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 78 percent chance on Polymarket.

The Debate Over Data Centers

Data centers have become a central issue in the Wisconsin governor race, with Crowley facing Republican criticisms for his stance. He stated to NBC News that a moratorium on data centers would not be effective in Wisconsin. Schatzinger noted this issue as Crowley’s potential vulnerability, as public opinion in Wisconsin has shifted negatively against data centers.

Tiffany has used Crowley’s comments about making Wisconsin a hub for data centers in his campaign attacks, even releasing an ad calling him “Data Center David Crowley.” Crowley’s plan involves community decision-making, renewable energy requirements, and infrastructural precautions for data centers.

Tiffany had expressed a positive view on data centers earlier this year, considering them an emerging technology but emphasized that existing manufacturers should not face higher electricity costs.

Crowley’s Primary Victory Over Hong

David Crowley’s narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary came as a surprise. Initially, Hong led in the polls, but concerns about her electability and past controversial statements contributed to Crowley’s comeback. Some Democrats were worried that her identification as a democratic socialist could alienate moderate voters.

David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist, expressed apprehension about Hong’s candidacy risking Democratic prospects. Concerns were raised about her past remarks and social media posts.

Wisconsin: A Key Swing State

Wisconsin is known as one of the nation’s battleground states. In recent elections, the state has seen close contests between Democrats and Republicans. In 2024, Trump narrowly defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, in 2020, former President Joe Biden turned the state blue after Trump’s 2016 victory.

Changes in Wisconsin’s political landscape have seen Republicans strengthening support among rural voters, while Democrats have relied on urban centers for high turnout, along with growing support in suburban areas.

The last time Wisconsin elected a Republican governor was in 2014, with Scott Walker. Tony Evers won in 2018, defeating Walker in his reelection bid.

Next Steps in the Race

The Cook Political Report considers the governor’s race a toss-up, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggests an advantage for Crowley, categorizing it as Lean Democratic. As the election approaches, both candidates aim to persuade voters in this highly competitive state.