Yemen’s Ansar Allah Movement and the Strategic Red Sea Crisis

A rapid offensive by the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, known as the Houthis, has positioned a key Iranian ally to control the crucial Red Sea coast of Yemen. This strategic shift affects another maritime corridor vital to the Axis of Resistance.

The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow passage only 16 miles wide at its narrowest point, connects Yemen’s southwest to Djibouti in East Africa. It serves as a link between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which ties to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. Historically, Ansar Allah has demonstrated its capability to disrupt global shipping from distances greater than where it currently positions itself.

With Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces in retreat, Ansar Allah’s potential blockade backed by missiles and drones threatens to disrupt approximately 8.1 million barrels per day of global maritime oil trade. This accounts for 10 percent of worldwide sea oil trade, which gains strategic importance due to Bab el-Mandeb’s role as an alternative shipping route following Iran’s restriction of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If the Houthis consolidate control over Yemen’s western coast and the approaches to the strait, this becomes much more than a Yemeni issue,” Hisham al-Omeisy, Yemeni analyst, told Newsweek.

Triple Threat to Trade

Omeisy stressed that Ansar Allah’s fighters need not close the Bab el-Mandeb entirely to create disruption. Instead, by making the region sufficiently dangerous, shipping companies may regard the risk as too great, leading to increased insurance costs, alternative routes around Africa, longer delivery times, and heightened prices.

“This becomes particularly dangerous when you look at what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz,” Omeisy said.

Further pressure on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula results from the combined potential threats posed by Iran on Hormuz and the Houthis on Bab el-Mandeb. Hosting 10 percent of global oil and 8 percent of global gas trade by sea, the strait previously accounted for a significant portion of global container traffic.

According to Nitya Labh from Chatham House’s International Security Program, countries like Saudi Arabia increased reliance on the Red Sea by diverting oil imports via overland gas pipelines following Hormuz’s closure.

But overland routes are not shielded from conflict. Ansar Allah attacks have reportedly damaged Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline between Abqaiq city and the west coast port city of Yanbu.

Red Sea disruptions could also cut off the Suez Canal, described by Labh as “the last viable shipping pathway through the Middle East region.” Traffic reduction post the Red Sea campaign launch in reaction to the October 2023 war outbreak in Gaza resulted in transits dropping by two-thirds.

Most vessels were forced onto the lengthy, costly South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope route. This situation echoes an era prior to 1869 when the Suez Canal did not exist. Following the wartime revival, which restored transits to peak levels upon a U.S.-backed October 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, future prospects once again appear bleak.

The impact is substantial for companies and consumers. “Rerouting trade through this longer path introduces various risks, such as traffic congestion in Mediterranean ports and African coasts that disrupt supply chains,” Labh said. “Altered routes and shifting patterns raise piracy and accident risks.”

Additional transit days raise insurance, transport, and fuel costs significantly, resulting in inflation escalation globally as costs reach consumers. Limited import affordability may cut off supplies, affecting smaller island states’ economies.

The Axis Surrounds Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia encounters growing challenges, already confronting threats from Iran to the east, Iraq’s Islamic Resistance ally in the north, and Ansar Allah in the south and west. The Yemeni front poses a significant risk as Ansar Allah prepares for open conflict with the kingdom.

Journalist Hussein Albukhaiti disclosed to Newsweek that once Ansar Allah seized Mokha port city on Thursday, any Saudi, U.S., or Mecca Accord ally interventions would prompt the group to “close the Red Sea for all the shipping…”

“They could also block the entire Red Sea exactly as Iran did in the Persian Gulf, because the Red Sea is one of our main weapons,” Albukhaiti stated.

Albukhaiti warned that Ansar Allah’s response to Saudi threats could extend beyond the sea into a direct conflict, potentially attacking Saudi Arabia’s Aramco energy infrastructure, airports, ports, and launching ground offensives against Najran, Jizan, and Asir.

In recent days, Ansar Allah strikes against Saudi cities and attacks on energy facilities coincide with Saudi warplane airstrikes in western Yemen. Saudi intervention in Yemen dates to 2015, when the Houthis, led by Abdul Malik al-Houthi, captured the capital, forcing the government into exile.

The Ansar Allah-aligned Supreme Political Council regards itself as Yemen’s legitimate authority, while the Presidential Leadership Council, led by President Rashad al-Alimi, maintains international recognition from its seat in Aden city.

Before the current Yemen conflict surge, frontlines remained relatively stable since a United Nations-backed April 2022 ceasefire. However, amid the gradual boil-over of regional tensions amid the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, Ansar Allah accused Riyadh of attacking Sanaa International Airport in July as their delegation returned from Tehran.

Regional Conflict and Global Impact

Saudi Arabia’s intervention dates to 2015 when Ansar Allah, led by Abdul Malik al-Houthi, seized the capital. The group regards itself as Yemen’s legitimate authority, while the Presidential Leadership Council, led by President Rashad al-Alimi, maintains international recognition from Aden city.

Prior regional tensions amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran led to Ansar Allah accusing Riyadh of striking Sanaa International Airport in July. Ansar Allah retaliated by resuming targeting Israeli Red Sea access and threatened Saudi access.

In a backdrop of regional tensions, Omeisy cited factors explaining Yemeni allies’ sudden frontlines collapse. “The Houthis managed to concentrate forces effectively, exploiting gaps quickly, while Yemeni government forces faced coordination, aerial support, and command challenges.”

Newsweek reached out to representatives of Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia for comment, though responses remain awaited.

Yemen’s War Turns Global

The Yemeni government’s defeat is far from inevitable. Historical precedence illustrated its ability to counter with Riyadh’s aid, such as in January against the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, leading to Southern Faction dissolution and Emirati troop withdrawal.

Now, Riyadh finds itself confronting potential ally defeat alongside direct kingdom threats impacting energy trade. Omeisy emphasized this situation’s profound implications for Saudi Arabia, regional security, and energy markets.

“Securing Yemen’s Red Sea coast is no longer solely about Yemen’s conflict,” Omeisy highlighted. “It directly impacts free navigation, energy security, and global trade stability.”

Global trade and energy security hinge upon whether Yemen’s government forces quickly regroup, establish new defenses, and coordinate counteroffensives. Saudi requests for U.S. air support were allegedly denied amid a deepening U.S.-Iran conflict pressing U.S. stockpiles. Sherwan Hindreen Ali, ACLED Middle East manager, warned Riyadh faces precarious options.

“The Saudis likely do not have many options presently, each carrying risks,” Ali told Newsweek. “Escalating military engagement risks sustained Houthi strike campaigns on Saudi energy infrastructure.” Complexity arises due to sophisticated Houthi weaponry amid reduced Saudi interceptor missile availability.

The Saudis could target Ansar Allah’s Sada heartland or propose concessions, pressured by economy and public opinion sustainability concerns. Concession risks increasing Iranian weapon transfers supporting Ansar Allah.

Such concessions grant Ansar Allah control over the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, threatening global shipping long-term. Energy-vulnerable nations worldwide seek de-escalation, an advantage Iran and its Yemeni ally hold in negotiations.

“Ultimately, the Houthis and Iran can leverage the global economy through their conflicts,” Labh remarked. “This leverage will prove significant in negotiations.” Rising external pressure on involved countries indicates increased urgency to end conflicts.