Texas U.S. Senate Race: Talarico Leads Over Paxton

Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a critical Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a poll from Texas Public Opinion Research released Friday. Paxton recently secured victory in the GOP runoff against Senator John Cornyn, aided by a recent endorsement from President Donald Trump.

Neither Cornyn nor Paxton initially captured a majority in March, prompting this high-profile intra-party runoff. The race could determine the GOP’s future in a key Sun Belt state and set the November contest against Talarico.

The poll shows Talarico with 47 percent, Paxton 44 percent, and Libertarian Ted Brown 1 percent. Seven percent remain undecided and two percent do not plan to vote. When undecided voters leaning towards a candidate were considered, Paxton had 19 percent, Talarico 17 percent, and Brown 13 percent. Still, 50 percent are unsure.

The survey, conducted among 1,670 likely voters on May 27-28, holds a margin of error of 2.8 percent. Talarico has a 47 percent favorability rate compared to a 40 percent unfavorable one. Paxton carries a 38 percent favorability against 57 percent unfavorable.

When asked who understands economic challenges facing Texans, Talarico scores 45 percent to Paxton’s 40 percent. Eight percent chose neither, and seven percent were unsure. Seventy-five percent see Paxton as too conservative, while 60 percent rate Talarico as too liberal.

Paxton, alongside notable Republicans like Senator Ted Cruz and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, has attacked Talarico post-runoff. Criticisms include Talarico’s stance on the American flag, his dietary choices, and his views on gender and religion. Talarico’s campaign has labeled Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America.”

Race Status Updated

The Cook Political Report shifted its stance on the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after Paxton’s win. This reclassification brings the race closer to a “toss-up.” Jessica Taylor, U.S. Senate and governors editor, noted concerns over Paxton’s general election strength and fundraising abilities relative to Cornyn.

Trump’s Response

President Trump congratulated Paxton and praised Cornyn’s career following the runoff. On Truth Social, Trump commended Paxton and criticized Talarico, characterizing him as an unsuitable candidate for Texas. He expressed plans to hold rallies for Paxton, emphasizing his support for the candidate.