Immigration’s Role in America’s Economic Future

Following another Independence Day celebration with parades, flags, and speeches, a crucial question arises regarding a foundational element of America’s growth: immigration. Immigrant efforts have shaped both America’s past and its economic future. Yet, recent restrictions on immigration, including fewer green cards, travel bans from several countries, and reduced refugee grants, have contributed to a decline in immigration numbers.

The U.S. Census Bureau data shows net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, dropped to 1.3 million in 2025, and is projected to fall to 321,000 in 2026. This decline marks a historic downturn. Restrictions are often justified by concerns over immigration’s economic effects, especially on state and local budgets. While not without basis, a study coauthored by me challenges the notion that immigrants drain state economies.

Analyzing data from every U.S. state from 2008 to 2023, the study finds that a 1 percent increase in a state’s population due to immigration correlates with a 1.5 percent rise in private-sector GDP for the value of goods and services. This rise in GDP often exceeds the population increase. The impact varies by state. In some states, like West Virginia, Montana, and Mississippi, a 1 percent population increase from immigrants boosts GDP by up to 4.41 percent.

States with small immigrant populations or high economic freedom, including New Hampshire and South Dakota, experience significant GDP growth from immigration. These findings have vital implications for America’s future economy, as demographic trends signal concerns. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) notes that U.S. population growth will slow, and without immigration, the population may decline starting in 2030.

An aging population compounds the issue. The CBO projects that the ratio of those aged 25-64 to people over 65 will drop substantially in the coming years. This means fewer workers to innovate, pay into Social Security, and care for the elderly.

“Many of the states most worried about immigration are also those concerned with population loss,” the study suggests. These states have significant economic incentives to support immigration.

Although immigration laws are federally managed, state representatives, especially from rural areas, may influence immigration reforms beneficial to their constituencies. States can adopt policies to maximize immigration benefits by reducing taxes, government size, and regulations, enabling new arrivals to contribute quickly by facilitating employment and business setups.

The United States remains proud of its status as a beacon of hope and freedom, embracing the sentiment of “The New Colossus” sonnet at the Statue of Liberty. A record 79 percent of Americans view immigration positively, according to Gallup. Diverse perspectives explore whether immigration resources outweigh outputs. Yet, studies show immigrants positively contribute to the economy, fulfilling the American Dream while benefiting the country. For many states, immigrants are integral to future economic development.

John Bitzan is the Menard Family Director at the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth at North Dakota State University. Material provided courtesy of Nexstar Media Inc.