South Carolina Gubernatorial Race: Nancy Mace Trails in Primary Polls

South Carolina Gubernatorial Primary: Current Standings

Representative Nancy Mace lags behind in recent polls as she vies for the South Carolina governorship. Her position in the race reflects divisions within the Republican Party concerning her political stance and complex relationship with former President Donald Trump. This election serves as a crucial indicator of the GOP’s direction in South Carolina, assessing the possibility of electing a candidate who diverges from Trump’s endorsed contender, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Several candidates are contending to replace the outgoing Governor Henry McMaster, who is limited to two terms. Mace joins Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson in the race. Their campaigns emphasize reducing state income tax and enhancing government efficiency, aiming to appeal to similar voter bases.

Recent Polls and Candidate Recognition

Polls suggest a competitive race ahead of the June 9 primary. If no candidate secures over 50% of the votes, a runoff will occur on June 23 between the two leading candidates. Three notable polls conducted by Co/Efficient, The Tyson Group, and The Citadel highlight the current voter sentiments.

• Co/Efficient: Conducted June 2-4, surveyed 879 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.31%.
• The Tyson Group: Conducted June 1-3, surveyed 500 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
• The Citadel: Conducted May 21-31, surveyed 600 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

Statewide officials like Evette and Wilson enjoy higher name recognition, affecting voter preferences, as noted by Professor Robert Oldendick of the University of South Carolina.

Prediction Markets: Evette in the Lead

Following Trump’s endorsement on May 29, prediction markets anticipated Evette’s nomination victory. Trump praised her early endorsement of his 2024 Presidential Campaign, strengthening her position.

• Kalshi predicts Evette has a 77% chance of winning, with Wilson at 17% and Mace at 4.3%.
• Polymarket forecasts Evette’s chances at 73%, Wilson at 13%, and Mace at 4% as of Monday.

These markets reflect collective trader opinions but do not guarantee election outcomes.

Nancy Mace and Donald Trump: A Complex Relationship

Nancy Mace initially allied closely with Trump, contributing to his 2016 campaign and earning his endorsement in 2020 for her congressional run. Although critical of Trump following the January 6 Capitol riot, Mace did not vote for his impeachment. Despite Trump endorsing an opponent in her 2022 reelection bid, Mace retained her seat with 53% of the vote.

By 2023, Mace sought to reconcile with Trump, emphasizing a common goal to oppose President Biden in 2024. She formally supported Trump’s candidacy in January 2024, accentuating shared political goals despite previous disagreements.

Mace’s conservative credentials and support for MAGA policies remain, though Trump’s endorsement of Evette highlighted ongoing tensions. Mace attributes her exclusion from Trump’s support to her stance regarding Epstein’s files.

Democratic Prospects for the Governorship

Despite optimism about the 2026 midterms, Democrats face challenges flipping South Carolina’s governorship. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball categorize it as securely Republican, with prediction markets giving Republicans over a 90% chance of retaining the governorship.

Professor Oldendick emphasizes the GOP’s advantages in fundraising and voter recognition within the state’s predominantly Republican environment. Republican victories in recent elections and historical voting patterns suggest continued dominance.