Texas Senate Runoff Highlights GOP Division

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Senator John Cornyn in the state’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff election, according to a new poll by Quantus Insights. The race went to a runoff after neither candidate secured a majority in March. This election is significant as it could indicate the Republican Party’s direction in Texas. The winner will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.

Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton is a notable factor. Last week, Trump publicly supported Paxton. Newsweek attempted to contact Paxton’s campaign for comment, but Cornyn’s team declined to provide a statement regarding the poll.

What The Poll Reveals

The poll results show Paxton with 52.7% support, while Cornyn has 43.4%, with 3.9% of respondents undecided. Surprisingly, 58.9% of those surveyed said Trump’s endorsement did not influence their vote. Paxton has more support among men, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and white GOP voters. In contrast, Cornyn leads among Hispanic and Asian voters and is tied with Paxton for Black voters. Rural voters tend to favor Paxton, while urban voters lean towards Cornyn.

On social media, Cornyn urged voters, “Tomorrow, Texas voters will make an important decision… I’m asking for your vote to keep delivering conservative results for Texas families.” Paxton encouraged his supporters by saying, “Vote with President Trump Tomorrow… If you’ve already voted, text your friends, call your family, and help get 5 more people to the polls… LET’S FINISH STRONG AND WIN THIS!”

Trump reiterated his support for Paxton on Truth Social, labeling him a loyal Attorney General. Trump condemned Cornyn for his lack of support for the “SAVE AMERICA ACT – VOTER I.D., PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP, NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS.”

Notably, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has chosen not to endorse a candidate in this significant runoff election, as reported by The Dallas Morning News. Other influential Republican figures in Texas, such as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Senator Ted Cruz, have also refrained from providing endorsements, according to USA Today.

The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters from May 21 to May 23, with a sample size of 936 and a margin of error of 3.5%.

Other Poll Findings

A poll from Texas Southern University/YouGov indicates a close contest between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton. Cornyn holds a narrow lead over Talarico, while Paxton and Talarico are tied. Libertarian Ted Brown garners minimal support. This survey was conducted among 1,223 likely voters, with a 2.8% margin of error.

Another poll by Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton in potential head-to-head matchups. Talarico has a slight edge over Cornyn and a stronger lead over Paxton. This poll surveyed 1,018 likely voters with a 3.3% margin of error.

In contrast, a co/efficient poll from last month shows Paxton trailing Cornyn slightly, with 13% undecided. Paxton has marginally more support among men, while Cornyn is slightly ahead among women. Hispanics favor Cornyn by a margin of 10 points, with the poll having a 3.07% margin of error among 1,143 likely Republican primary voters.