NOAA’s Three-Month Forecast Predicts Above-Normal Temperatures

The three-month forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, released on June 18, anticipates above-normal temperatures across much of the country. As summer officially begins on June 21, the forecast suggests significant heat is on its way.

Oregon and Washington have the highest chances of exceeding their ‘normal’ temperatures during July, August, and September. In contrast, Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri stand out as areas with a roughly 30% chance of temperatures dipping below the historical average, as determined by data from 1991 to 2020.

Scott Handel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, explained that the trend for most of the nation is towards warmer conditions for these months.

Fire and Drought Risks Heighten in Summer 2026

Regarding precipitation, NOAA predicts little deviation from historical norms for most of the U.S. However, Southern California, Utah, Arizona, and parts of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico might see above-average rainfall. This would benefit areas plagued by drought and wildfire risks.

According to Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, this anticipated increase in rainfall stems from a mix of monsoon moisture and potential east Pacific tropical storms.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecast indicates an elevated fire risk this fall in the Northwest, where conditions are warmer and drier than usual. Additionally, drought conditions might worsen across the northern Rockies, and dry thunderstorms could potentially ignite wildfires early in the monsoon season in the Southwest.

As we move from late July into August, increased moisture could swiftly shift the threat from wildfires to flooding. Merrill noted that the Southwest might experience a rapid transition from dry, hot weather with wildfire risks to sudden flooding events. There is also an increased flood risk spanning from northern Texas to the Midwest.